Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Different (and Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring element of US politics – however this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and bad blood between the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance because both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base has been demanding for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict executive utilization of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.